U.S. home prices just fell for the first time in 3 years. What is happening in Ocean and Monmouth County?

You may have seen the posts going around this week: U.S. home-sale prices just fell for the first time in over three years, 4 in 10 homes for sale have a price cut, and sellers outnumber buyers by 63% - the widest gap in Redfin's records. The numbers are real - I checked each one against its source - but they describe a national picture that looks very different from Ocean and Monmouth County. Here is what the data actually shows.

Did home prices really fall for the first time in 3 years?

Yes. Redfin's weekly market update, published October 29, shows the median U.S. home-sale price at $389,601 for the four weeks ending October 25 - down 0.1% from a year earlier. That is the second straight week of year-over-year declines (following a 0.2% dip the week before) and the first annual declines in more than three years. Pending home sales fell to a seasonally adjusted 276,352 in that same four-week period - down 15.9% from a year earlier and the lowest level in Redfin's weekly records, which date to 2021 - and pending sales declined week over week in all 50 of the most populous metro areas for the third straight week. The median monthly mortgage payment hit $2,786, the second-highest on record, with the weekly average 30-year rate at 7.32%.

Did 44% of homes for sale really get a price cut?

Not confirmed - the verifiable figure is a little lower. Parcl Labs, a housing analytics firm, tracks active listings nationwide; its live tracker showed 41.7% of U.S. listings priced below their original asking price as of November 1, about 4 in 10. A news writeup citing Parcl's October data said 44.8%, but that figure does not appear on Parcl's own site. (Redfin measures price drops differently: it counts 21.5% of listings with a drop over four weeks.) Either way, cutting prices has become common nationally - though as the local numbers below show, not equally everywhere.

Are there really 63% more sellers than buyers?

Yes, according to Redfin's September report, published October 14: an estimated 62.6% more home sellers than buyers, the widest gap in Redfin's records, which date back to 2013. (Some headlines say "since the 2008 crash." Redfin's data series starts in 2013, so the precise claim is "widest since Redfin's records began in 2013.") The number of active buyers fell to its lowest level on record. Forty-one of the 50 most populous metro areas are now buyer's markets, led by Miami, Nashville and Houston.

Why is the market so stuck?

One big reason is the rate gap. About 65.6% of outstanding mortgages carry a rate below 5%, and roughly half are below 4%, according to realtor.com's analysis of outstanding loans published October 22. Meanwhile, Freddie Mac's weekly survey put the average 30-year fixed rate at 7.24% for the week of October 29. An owner with a 3% or 4% rate who sells and buys again takes on a far more expensive loan, so many stay put. Existing-home sales ran at a 3.99 million annual pace in September, the National Association of Realtors reported October 13 - with August and September the two slowest months this year. Sales fell month over month in the Northeast, the only region where they did.

What is happening in Ocean and Monmouth County?

A very different story. While the national median price ticked down, the four-county metro division that includes Ocean and Monmouth (the Lakewood-New Brunswick division, which also covers Middlesex and Somerset) posted an 8.4% year-over-year price increase for the four weeks ending October 25 - the second-biggest increase among the 50 most populous U.S. metro areas in Redfin's rankings, behind only San Francisco at 15%. And while sellers outnumber buyers by 62.6% nationally, our division was essentially balanced in September, with 0.6% fewer sellers than buyers (Redfin).

Ocean County: homes sold at an average 99.1% of asking, with a median 32 days on the market (the national median is 50). A third of homes sold above asking, versus 23.2% nationally. Median sale price $488,906, roughly flat versus a year ago (Redfin, three months ending September).

Monmouth County: 45.2% of homes sold above asking - nearly double the national share - at an average 100.7% of list price, with a median 25 days on the market. Median sale price $733,858, up 1.2% from a year ago.

Toms River: median sale price up 5.1% from a year ago to $524,750, and more homes sold this September than last (354 vs. 330), at about 1% below asking on average.

Lakewood: a median 48 days on the market. Only about 34 homes sold there in September, so its monthly median price swings too much to read a trend into - the county numbers above are the reliable read.

Why the difference? Redfin's own explanation points to supply: seller's markets are concentrated where limited homebuilding has kept inventory tight, and it names the greater New York City area - which includes our counties - as a place where years of constrained construction have left buyers competing for relatively few listings. The Sun Belt, where builders kept adding homes, is where the biggest buyer's markets formed.

What does this mean if you are buying here?

The national headlines overstate the shift locally. In the three months ending September, the median time on market was 25 days in Monmouth County and 32 days in Ocean County (national median: 50), and the share of homes selling above asking was 45.2% in Monmouth and a third in Ocean - both stronger than the national figures. Those are county-wide medians, not a promise for any one home: a listing that has been sitting for weeks usually leaves more room to negotiate than a fresh listing drawing interest.

What does this mean if you are selling?

Price it right from day one. About one in five Ocean County listings and one in six Monmouth County listings took a price cut in the three months ending September (Redfin) - but the average sale-to-list price ratio was still 99.1% in Ocean and 100.7% in Monmouth. Buyers here are still paying for homes they see as priced fairly.

Frequently asked questions

Is the housing market crashing?

Nothing in the data shows a crash. Redfin's weekly reading has the national median essentially flat - down 0.1% from a year ago, the second straight weekly dip and the first annual declines in over three years - while NAR's September median still rose year over year for a 39th straight month; the two track different periods and samples. The clearest decline is in the number of sales. Locally, prices in our metro division rose 8.4% over the past year, the second-biggest increase among the 50 most populous metros.

Michael Burry says "buy half the house you can afford" - is that right?

That is genuinely his advice, reported by Fortune on October 23 as part of his life lessons for Gen Z. How much house fits your budget depends on your own numbers - income, debts, down payment and reserves. The math matters more than the headline; I am happy to run it with you.

Will mortgage rates come down?

No one can promise where rates go. The latest weekly average for a 30-year fixed was 7.24% (Freddie Mac, week of October 29). I post a rate update here every week.

Is now a good time to buy?

That depends on your numbers, not the headlines. The local data says you are shopping in a balanced market, not a crashing one. Talk to me about the math for your situation before deciding.

Spring Home Company Incorporated - NMLS #2741914 - Equal Housing Lender. This article is for general information only and is not a commitment to lend or financial advice. All figures come from the sources cited (Redfin, Parcl Labs, the National Association of Realtors, realtor.com, Freddie Mac, Fortune) as of the dates noted; market data is subject to revision. Mortgage rates vary by borrower, loan program and day - contact us for a quote for your situation.